Decision 1 · Week 1 · Wed Nov 4
Will Social Security run out?
SHORT ANSWERNo, but under the 2026 Trustees Report the retirement trust fund reserves run out in late 2032. After that, incoming payroll taxes would cover about 78% of scheduled benefits unless Congress acts.
The Social Security Trustees released their 2026 report on June 9, 2026. The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund, which pays retiree and survivor benefits, is projected to be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032. At that point, continuing income would pay 78% of scheduled benefits.
If the retirement and disability funds are counted together, reserves last until 2034, the same year as last year's report, with 83% of benefits payable. By 2100 that falls to about 65%. The Disability Insurance fund alone is projected to stay solvent through 2100.
Depleted reserves do not mean zero checks. Workers keep paying payroll tax, and that income keeps paying most benefits. Example: a $2,000 monthly benefit paid at 78% would be $1,560, a cut of $440 a month.
The size of the gap grew this year. The 75-year shortfall is 4.42% of taxable payroll, up from 3.82% in the 2025 report. Closing it requires Congress to raise revenue, reduce benefits, or both.
No one knows what Congress will do, or when. What a planner can do is test a budget against a lower check and see whether it still holds.
In Week 1 you rerun your income plan with Social Security at 78% from 2033 on and see what changes.
Sources
- Social Security Board of Trustees: Projection for Combined Trust Funds Remains Consistent with Prior Year · Social Security Administration
- 2026 OASDI Trustees Report, Section II.E: Conclusion · Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary
Written and reviewed by Todd Allyn, Founding Director, Sovereo Intelligence
Facts checked Oct 6, 2026 · Next review by Jan 15, 2027
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