The Retirement Decision Lab

Decision 1 · Week 1 · Wed Nov 4

How does inflation affect my retirement?

SHORT ANSWERInflation shrinks what each dollar buys, and retirement can last 30 years. At 3% a year, prices nearly double in 20 years. Social Security adjusts every year (2.8% for 2026), but fixed pensions, annuities and savings do not adjust on their own.

Inflation matters more in retirement because the time span is long and your paycheck no longer rises with prices. Even modest inflation compounds.

Worked example: at 3% a year, prices rise by a factor of 1.03 to the 20th power, about 1.81. A household spending $50,000 today would need about $90,300 in 20 years to buy the same things. Put the other way, a fixed $1,000 a month would buy what about $554 buys today.

Social Security is indexed. Benefits rose 2.8% in January 2026, based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). That added about $56 a month to the average retirement benefit. The 2025 increase was 2.5%, and the past decade averaged about 3.1%.

Not every cost moves with the general rate. The standard Medicare Part B premium rose from $185.00 in 2025 to $202.90 in 2026, about 9.7%, more than three times the COLA. When Part B rises faster than the COLA, part of the raise goes to Medicare.

Check each income source for indexing. A pension with no cost-of-living adjustment, a fixed annuity, or a bond paying a set amount holds its dollar value but loses buying power every year. The larger the share of your income that is fixed, the more of your future spending your savings have to cover.

Where it gets personal

In Week 1 you run your spending forward at more than one inflation rate and see which income lines keep up and which fall behind.

See the Retirement Decision Lab

Sources

  1. Social Security Announces 2.8 Percent Benefit Increase for 2026 · Social Security Administration
  2. 2026 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles · Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services

Written and reviewed by Todd Allyn, Founding Director, Sovereo Intelligence
Facts checked Oct 6, 2026 · Next review by Jan 15, 2027
How we source answers · Report an error

Did this answer your question?

Ask the Lab

Still have a question?

Ask it in your own words. If we haven't answered it yet, we will.

Sovereo Intelligence · Live lab

General answers end where your numbers begin.

Four live 90-minute working sessions. Four decisions, worked on your own income and costs, ending with your personal Retirement Decision Brief. Led by Todd Allyn: 24 years teaching economics, finance and business, former business school dean, not a financial advisor.

See the Lab and join the waitlist
Price
$297 once
Sessions
Wednesdays, 7pm Eastern
Dates
Nov 4, 11, 18 · Dec 2
Enrollment
Oct 11 to Oct 23, noon ET